Monte Carlo
Re-run the critical path again and again over three-point durations and register risks, then commit a chosen confidence level back into the schedule as a real, rescheduled plan.
Who it is for. Anyone who has to state a P80 date or a P80 cost to a board, a lender or a client — and defend how it was derived.
What it is for
A deterministic finish date is a single sample from a distribution and everyone knows it, but quantifying that is normally a separate tool and a separate export. This runs the product’s own CPM engine every iteration, so a delay only moves the finish when it lands on the driving path.
Every simulation uses the same CPM engine as the live schedule. Apply a chosen confidence level as per-activity durations, then reschedule into a valid plan with the whole scenario reversible in one undo.
What it does
Every line below is in the product today.
The real scheduler, every iteration
Each pass samples every duration and re-runs the same CPM engine, link manager and calendars the live schedule uses — so simulated and deterministic behaviour cannot diverge.
Apply a P-level back to the plan
Applying a confidence level writes each activity’s own sampled duration and reschedules, producing an internally consistent plan — writing independent per-activity P-level dates would not, since real activity durations move together rather than in isolation.
Register risks in the simulation
Risks are sampled alongside duration uncertainty and injected into the activity they are linked to; opportunities apply the same magnitude with the sign flipped.
Activities that might not happen
An activity sampled out is skipped for that iteration without breaking the logic network, so its predecessors and successors still schedule correctly around it.
Criticality index
The share of iterations in which each activity sat on the critical path, with iterations it was sampled out of correctly excluded.
Unquantified risks are counted, not zeroed
A risk with no impact for the chosen metric is skipped and reported as skipped, so it cannot silently understate exposure.
One undo for the whole what-if
Applying a scenario is wrapped in a single undo batch, so Ctrl+Z reverses the experiment rather than one activity of it.
Runs in the background, and cancels for real
A simulation does not freeze the rest of the app while it runs, shows live progress, and a cancel button that actually stops it.
It reads and writes with
Risks
A portfolio register carrying threats and opportunities, each with its own matrix and strategies, linked both ways to the schedule.
Activities
The critical-path Gantt where the schedule is actually built — a virtualised table and timeline that computes your dates from logic, calendars and constraints instead of letting you type them.
CP Crash
Find the cheapest way to pull the finish date in, see what each day actually costs, and know the exact date the critical path moves to a different chain.
See it on your own schedule.
Send an XER before the call and we will import it and show you Monte Carlo running against your data.